Whit’s Picks: Upsets are surprising because they don’t usually happen

Published 12:02 am Friday, November 9, 2018

Woe unto the No. 4 seed.

Upsets happen all the time, it’s true. But there is a reason a No. 1 seed in the NCAA basketball tournament losing in the first round is called a “once in a lifetime” event. Actually, it’s only happened once in anyone’s lifetime as University of Maryland-Baltimore County trounced Virginia on March 16.

The No. 1 is the huge mountain standing in the way of both Northwest Whitfield and North Murray high schools in the first round of the Georgia High School Association state football playoff tonight.

Woe unto the No. 4 seed.

I’ve sort of felt like a No. 4 seed this year with what I deem to be a disappointing season as your “Guru of Gridiron Guessing.” A 46-13 mark on the year after last week’s 5-2 mark might seem like a good year, but my fans have become used to much better than that. Still, it’s been a fun year.

• Game of the Week — Brookstone at Christian Heritage: I’ve been trying to come up with some sort of comparison for what the Lions and their fans can expect when the Cougars bring their show to town tonight.

First of all, Brookstone is in Columbus, which for those of you new to Georgia is East Phenix City, Alabama. They play a lot of teams you haven’t heard of, even though I have always thought that fellow Columbus private school St. Anne-Pacelli would make an excellent pasta.

Here is what I do know: Brookstone can flat out score.

They score points in bunches, and some of their final scores this year look more like girls high school basketball finals. The lowest output this year for the Cougars has been 25 points, and that was in a loss to the No. 5 team in the state — Marion County.

I genuinely wonder if this will be the best offense that the Lions have faced this year, or if Brookstone have merely played a lot of soft defenses down in southwest Georgia. Macon County and Dooly County are both known for playing some pretty good football through the years and Brookstone put 39 and 36 points, respectively, on those two. The opposite argument of that is that Macon County scored 43 and Dooly County hit the 63-point mark. Brookstone comes into the game having lost their last two games of the year.

Christian Heritage comes into the game on a two-game winning streak, and has been alternatively lights-out good and head-scratchingly bewildering at the same time. They have three shutouts on their résumé, but I can’t see anyway that this game isn’t a shootout.

Whit’s Pick: Christian Heritage 41, Brookstone 38

• Northwest Whitfield at Blessed Trinity: Blessed Trinity is a beast. I’ve known coach Tim McFarlin from the time when he was building a power at Roswell. Since retiring from public schools, McFarland has increased his power at Blessed Trinity.

McFarlin won just over 70 percent of his games at Roswell. At Blessed Trinity, the mark is 82 percent.

This season, the Titans (no doubt) are undefeated and have been a battle-tested undefeated. They have beaten five ranked teams this year, including Marist, St. Pius and Woodward Academy. They aren’t cupcake eaters.

Whit’s Pick: Blessed Trinity 48, Northwest 7

• North Murray at Greater Atlanta Christian: GAC ran roughshod over Region 7-3A competition this season with only one game closer than three touchdowns. While the Spartans certainly aren’t unbeatable — as their 8-2 record proves — they are certainly one of the favorites to make a run at the Class 3A title as the fifth-ranked team in the state.

North Murray is putting together playoff appearances, and the best thing the program can do is get more and more experience and learn how to win these games.

Whit’s Pick: GAC 43, North Murray 21

Chris Whitfield is a general assignment reporter and sports columnist. Contact him at chriswhitfield@dailycitizen.news and follow him at Twitter.com/cwhitfi7.